Part of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 32 (NeurIPS 2019)
Yujia Xie, Haoming Jiang, Feng Liu, Tuo Zhao, Hongyuan Zha
This paper proposes a new meta-learning method -- named HARMLESS (HAwkes Relational Meta Learning method for Short Sequences) for learning heterogeneous point process models from a collection of short event sequence data along with a relational network. Specifically, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian mixture Hawkes process model, which naturally incorporates the relational information among sequences into point process modeling. Compared with existing methods, our model can capture the underlying mixed-community patterns of the relational network, which simultaneously encourages knowledge sharing among sequences and facilitates adaptively learning for each individual sequence. We further propose an efficient stochastic variational meta-EM algorithm, which can scale to large problems. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data show that HARMLESS outperforms existing methods in terms of predicting the future events.